Open-access pre-print of "Impact of Twin Lockdowns on Hunger, Labor-Market Outcomes, and Household Coping Mechanisms: Evidence from Uganda"

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My paper with Shamma Alam and Ishraq Ahmed is now available in open-access pre-print at the World Bank Economic Review.

Uganda had two of the strictest COVID-19 lockdowns in Sub-Saharan Africa. These severe lockdowns provide a unique case study for understanding the implications of such public-health measures on economic well-being. We use longitudinal data to examine the lockdowns’ short- and medium-term impacts on household food in- security, labor-market outcomes, and coping strategies. Lockdowns significantly exacerbated food insecurity immediately and continued to do so in the medium term. The effect was more pronounced after the second lockdown, likely from a combination of reduced resilience after the first lockdown and lower-than-normal rainfall immediately before. There were substantial decreases in income from various sources—including agriculture, non-farm businesses, and wage employment—contributing to the heightened food insecurity. Notably, agricultural households were less adversely affected, and there was a significant switch to agricultural activities as a coping mechanism. The other coping mechanisms households typically rely on for idiosyncratic shocks, such as remittances and government assistance, failed, contributing to the sizeable increase in food insecurity.

The R code and the text for the project are available on https://github.com/population-research/uganda-covid.

"How Is Fertility Behavior in Africa Different?" conditionally accepted at Demography

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My paper, "How Is Fertility Behavior in Africa Different?," has been conditionally accepted at Demography. The final version should follow soon. Until then, here is the abstract.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s fertility decline has progressed much slower than in other regions. Using large-scale woman-level data, I provide new evidence on how fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa compares to East Asia, South Asia, and Latin America by examining fertility outcomes by grade level across regions. Unlike prior research that focuses on aggregate fertility outcomes, I estimate fertility outcomes and total fertility rates separately by region, area of residence, age group, and grade level. I demonstrate that differences in fertility between Sub-Saharan Africa and other regions first increase and then decrease with years of education, with little consistent evidence for differences among better-educated women. Furthermore, for grade levels with significantly higher fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions, the differences are substantially smaller for surviving children compared to children ever born. To proxy for school quality, I use women’s literacy and show that the results for literacy rates follow a similar pattern to the fertility outcomes. Overall, the results suggest that offspring mortality and the lower quality of primary schooling are important contributors to higher fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to other regions.

Paper on Uganda's COVID-19 lockdowns forthcoming in the World Bank Economic Review

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My paper, "Impact of Twin Lockdowns on Hunger, Labor Market Outcomes, and Household Coping Mechanisms: Evidence from Uganda," joint with Shamma A. Alam and Ishraq Ahmed, has been accepted for publication at the World Bank Economic Review. The paper and access to the GitHub repository for the project will be available as soon as we have updated a few things in the paper.

Forthcoming Paper In World Development

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My paper, "Navigating Food Price Shocks in a Pandemic: Food Insecurity and Coping Mechanisms in Burkina Faso," joint with Shamma A. Alam and Shi Xi Liu has been accepted for publication in World Development. The paper is freely available for a period here.

Abstract:

Global food prices rose substantially after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper examines the impact of rising food prices during the pandemic on food security in Burkina Faso. We aim to answer two primary questions. First, how do food price shocks affect household food insecurity? Second, what coping strategies do households adopt in response to these price shocks? Leveraging country-wide high-frequency longitudinal data, we employ household fixed effect models to examine the effects. In the absence of direct information on local food prices, we use household-reported price shocks to capture province-level price increases and show that the results are consistent with national-level price increases.

We find significant and immediate increases in food insecurity following the price shocks, and this effect persists for at least two months. The price shocks most acutely affected the poorest households. Furthermore, food insecurity increased more in rural areas than in urban areas. The higher proportion of poorer households in rural areas explains part of this difference. We find that households primarily cope with the shock by relying on increased assistance from relatives in Burkina Faso and abroad.

This study is the first to use panel data with household fixed effects to examine the repercussions of the rise in food prices during the pandemic on food insecurity in a developing country and to examine the coping mechanisms employed by households. Given that food prices are likely to remain high globally for an extended period, our findings carry implications for the broader developing world. Furthermore, given the disproportionate effect on the poorest and those living in rural areas, the findings highlight the need for policies to mitigate the negative impacts of the price shocks and enhance overall food security in countries like Burkina Faso.

New working paper: How Is Fertility Behavior in Africa Different?

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I have a new working paper on how fertility behavior in Sub-Saharan Africa differ from Latin America, East Asia, and South Asia. The paper examines completed fertility using all DHS and MICS data from the four regions. Abstract is below and the Online Appendix is here.

Sub-Saharan Africa's fertility decline has progressed much slower than elsewhere. However, there is still substantial disagreement about why, partly because four leading potential causes—cultural norms, expected offspring mortality, land access, and school quality—are challenging to measure. I use large-scale woman-level data to infer what role each explanation plays in fertility differences between Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, South Asia, and Latin America, based on estimations of fertility outcomes by region, cohort, area of residence, and grade level. I show that the differences in fertility between Sub-Saharan Africa and the other regions first increase and then decrease with years of education. For women without education, fertility rates in Sub-Saharan Africa are comparable to those in Latin America. Similarly, for women with secondary education or higher, fertility rates in Sub-Saharan Africa align with those in South and East Asia. There are substantial and statistically significant differences for women with some primary education for all three comparison regions. The differences are more pronounced for children ever born than for surviving children. Overall, the results suggest that offspring mortality and the lower quality of primary schooling are the dominant reasons why fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa lags behind other regions.

Forthcoming paper: Impacts of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Healthcare Inaccessibility and Unaffordability in Uganda

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Bijetri Bose, Shamma Alam, and I have a new paper, "Impacts of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Healthcare Inaccessibility and Unaffordability in Uganda," forthcoming in the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. The abstract is:

Several studies have reported adverse consequences of the COVID-19 lockdowns on the utilization of healthcare services across Africa. However, little is known about the channels through which lockdowns impacted healthcare utilization. This study focuses on unaffordability as a reason for not utilizing healthcare services. We estimate the causal impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown on healthcare inaccessibility and affordability in Uganda relative to the nonlockdown periods of the pandemic. We use nationally representative longitudinal household data and a household fixed-effects model to identify the impact of the lockdown on whether households could not access medical treatment and whether the reason for not getting care was the lack of money. We find that the lockdown in Uganda was associated with an 8.4% higher likelihood of respondents being unable to access healthcare when treatment was needed relative to the nonlockdown periods. This implies a 122% increase in the share of respondents unable to access healthcare. As lockdown restrictions eased, the likelihood of being unable to access medical treatment decreased. The main reason for the increase in inaccessibility was the lack of money, with a 71% increase in the likelihood of respondents being unable to afford treatment. We find little evidence that the effects of the lockdown differed by wealth status or area of residence. Our results indicate the need for policymakers to consider immediate social support for households as a strategy for balancing the disruptions caused by lockdowns.

The dismal effects of Uganda's Covid lockdowns

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Shamma Alam, Ishraq Ahmed, and I have a new working paper out examining the effects on food insecurity from Uganda's two Covid lockdowns. Abstract is below:

We examine the short- and medium-run impacts of two of the strictest Covid-19 lockdowns in the developing world, employing longitudinal data from Uganda. Household fixedeffects estimations show significant, immediate increases in food insecurity after the first lockdown and a continued negative impact three months after its lifting. The second lockdown’s medium-term impact was even worse, likely because of a compounding effect of a concurrent drought. The rising food insecurity was partly the result of the lockdownrelated reductions in the availability of paid work. Agricultural households were more likely to continue working and consequently saw smaller increases in food insecurity. Furthermore, the likelihood of engaging in agricultural work increased after the first lockdown, suggesting a switch to agriculture as a coping mechanism. The other coping mechanisms that households typically rely on for idiosyncratic shocks failed in the face of a worldwide shock, contributing to the sizeable increase in food insecurity.

Ahead of print Demography publication - Birth Spacing and Fertility

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My paper, "Birth Spacing and Fertility in the Presence of Son Preference and Sex-Selective Abortions: India's Experience Over Four Decades," is now available ahead of print on Demography's website: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9580703. Demography is now an open-access journal, so the PDF is free to download for everybody. The paper should be out in the first 2022 issue.

Update on forthcoming paper on sex selection and birth spacing in India

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My paper, "Birth Spacing and Fertility in the Presence of Son Preference and Sex-Selective Abortions: India's Experience Over Four Decades," is now in line for publication in Demography. The likely publication date is December 2021. Until then, you can find the final version here, together with the online appendix, and the GitHub repository with the paper and code (note, you will have to get the data yourself from DHS).

New version of paper on birth spacing and the use of sex selection

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My paper on birth spacing in India has been conditionally accepted at Demography. The new version based on Editor and referee comments is now available.

The new abstract is below:

Over the past four decades, the Hindu women in India most likely to use sex-selective abortions—well-educated women with no sons—had the most substantial lengthening of birth intervals and the most biased sex ratios. As a result, we now see cases that reverse the traditional spacing pattern, with some women with no sons having longer birth intervals than those with sons. Those least likely to use sex-selective abortions—less-educated women in rural areas—still follow the traditional pattern of short spacing when they have girls, with only limited evidence of sex selection. Because of the rapid lengthening in spacing, the standard fertility rates substantially overestimated how fast cohort fertility fell. Despite a convergence, cohort fertility is still 10%–20% higher than the fertility rate and above replacement level for all but the best-educated urban women. Infant mortality has declined substantially over time for all groups, with the fastest decline among the less educated. Short birth spacing is still associated with higher mortality, although considerably less so for the best-educated women. There is no evidence that repeated sex-selective abortions are associated with higher infant mortality for the child eventually born. Finally, it does not appear that the use of sex selection is declining.

New professorship position

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Some shameless self-promotion: I will be the Howard J. Bosanko Professor of International Economics and Finance for 2020-23.

I plan to organize a series of Bosanko Lectures that will touch on different aspects of the challenges and opportunities that Sub-Saharan Africa faces – population, human capital, and business climate.

If any of you have ideas for speakers, preferably in academia or think tanks, I would love to hear them.

The announcement is at https://www.seattleu.edu/business/news-events/ (scroll down a bit).

In India, longer birth spacing, partly from sex selection, led to an underestimate of fertility, but sex selection did not increase infant mortality

I have just finished revising my paper on birth spacing and sex selection in India. The paper is here and the abstract below.

Using four rounds of India's National Family and Health Surveys and a competing-risk hazard model, I show that Hindu women's average birth intervals increased over the last four decades for all education groups. The most significant increases are among the women most likely to use sex selection. Despite the rise in average intervals, the likelihood of very short spacing did not change substantially. Hence, the increases come predominantly from the longer birth intervals getting even longer. As a result of the longer spacing, fertility rates significantly overestimated how fast cohort fertility fell. Although cohort fertility and the fertility rate have started to converge, the cohort fertility is still substantially higher than the fertility rate. Furthermore, cohort fertility is still at or above replacement level for all but the best-educated urban women. Finally, infant mortality risk has declined substantially over time for all groups, but fastest for the lower education groups, who are now close to the level of women with the most education. Short birth spacing is still associated with higher mortality, although the difference is small for the best-educated women. There is no evidence that the increasing use of sex selection is associated with higher infant mortality risk.