Vaccine and Economic Nonsense

Todays' NYT has an article about malaria vaccine trails in Africa which is showing some promise. In there there is a quote:

No decision has been made about the price to be offered to poor countries and international health agencies. But “if a child will benefit, price will not stand in the way,” said Dr. Christian Loucq, director of the vaccine initiative.

Obviously, if that was the case the price would be set so that Glaxo would make zero profit from the vaccine and that is unlikely to happen. This is an variation of the argument that if just one life can be saved by during something it is worth essentially unlimited resources, which is clearly false. This is why the Copenhagen Consensus was introduced.

Gone With the Wind? Hurricane Risk, Fertility and Education

I have just finished a paper on the relation between risk, fertility and education that uses data on hurricanes in Guatemala. The abstract is below. You can download the paper here.

This paper uses data on hurricanes in Guatemala over the last 120 years combined with a recent household survey to analyse how decisions on education and fertility respond to hurricane risk and shocks. For households with land an increase in the risk of hurricanes lead to both higher fertility and higher education, while households without land have fewer children but also higher education. Hurricane shocks lead to decreases in both fertility and education, and although there is a substantial compensatory effect on fertility later in life, that is not the case for education. The paper examines a number of possible explanations for these patterns and finds that the most likely explanation is insurance considerations through increased available labour and migration.

The Washington Monthly College Rankings

This might interest those of you who think that the "standard" rankings of universities leaves something to be desired. The Washington Monthly has just published their second ranking of universities and UW ranks 15 among the national universities (for comparison Harvard is 28!). The following is a quote from the article:

"What are reasonable indicators of how much a school is benefiting the country? We came up with three: how well it performs as an engine of social mobility (ideally helping the poor to get rich rather than the very rich to get very, very rich), how well it does in fostering scientific and humanistic research, and how well it promotes an ethic of service to country. We then devised a way to measure and quantify these criteria (See "A Note on Methodology"). Finally, we placed the schools into rankings. Rankings, we admit, are never perfect, but they're also indispensable."

You can find the rankings here and the complete guide with a link to the methodology here. For those of you who would like a digested version of the methodology the guide led to this article in the Washington Post.

Enjoy!

Sex selection, jail time and the import of brides

There are a couple of interesting recent article on the BBC News website relating to sex selective abortion and changes in India. The first is about a doctor and his assistant who have been sentenced to two years in jail for revealing the sex of a female foetus and then agreeing to abort it. This is the first time this has happend in India since a law was introduced in 1994 banning the practice.

The second is about what is supposedly the increased import of bride to the state of Haryana, which is one of the states in India with the most unequal sex ratio.

A summary of March

I never got around to writing the things up as they happend, so instead here is what went on in March of various research related activities: I presented my paper, "Gone with the Wind? Hurricane Risk, Fertility and Education", at the Pacific Conference for Development Economics held at Santa Clara University, at the Center for Sudies in Demography and Ecology seminar series and at the Population Association of America's (PAA) annual conference in Los Angeles in the session "Demography of Poverty". At the Population Association of America conference I also discussed two papers in the session "Causal Effects of Schooling on Demographic and Health Outcomes".

I also travelled to Delhi in connection with my project on the use of sex selective abortion in India. The project is partly financed by the University of Washington's Royalty Research Fund. Finally, I participated in a one day workshop on population issues in Ethiopia organised by the World Bank in Addis Ababa, where I presented preliminary results from a project analysing the effectiveness of family planning programs in Ethiopia.

Richard Akresh Seminar - Friday 3 March

Richard Akresh from Illinios will be giving a seminar Friday 3 March. His main research area is development economics and he has worked on areas like child fostering, health and civil war. The title of the paper is "School Enrollment Impacts of Non-traditional Household Structure". The abstract is below:

Children growing up away from their biological parents may experience lower human capital investment. This paper measures the impact of child fostering on school enrollment using fixed effects regressions to address the endogeneity of fostering. Data collection by the author involved tracking and interviewing the sending and receiving household participating in each fostering exchange, allowing a comparison of foster children with their non-fostered biological siblings. Young foster children are 17.5 and 17.9 percent more likely to be enrolled after fostering than their host and biological siblings, respectively. This schooling improvement translates into a long-run improvement in educational and occupational attainment.

The Problems with Goats...

British Oxfam (one of the leading development NGOs) have a web site, Oxfam Unwrapped, where people can buy gifts that then goes to developing countries. According to the Times (the real one) the surprise hit of the Christmas shopping season was the goat, which costs GPD 24. From the "product description":

No if's or butts a goat is a great gift. Even the kids can get involved. You start with one and end up with a herd. They can then be sold to raise cash for school fees, or tools and start to reduce poverty. Best of all, the first female kid is given to another family and the process starts all over again. So why not invest in a goat?

Well, nothing is so good that it is not bad for something (normally the other way around I believe), so promtly The World Land Trust (WLT), also from the UK, have complained that the animals (you can also get a camel, calf or donkey) will have a “devastating environmental impact”. You can read more here.

PS Notice that the product decision specificly mentions kids. Next, someone will complaing that Oxfam is encouraging child labour!

Yoonseok Lee - Job Market Candidate

We have Yoonseok Lee from Yale as a job candidate Wendesday 1 February. The seminar will *not* be in the usual room, but instead in Savery 110 C. The time remains the same: 2.00 - 3.30. The title of his paper is "Nonparametric Estimation of Dynamic Panel Models". Abstract: This paper develops nonparametric estimation of dynamic panel models using series approximations. We extend the standard linear dynamic panel model to a nonparametric form that maintains additive fixed effects, where the fixed effects are eliminated by the within transformation. This approach generalizes earlier work on cross sectional series estimation by Newey (1997). Nonlinear homogenous Markov process is properly conditioned to be a stationary β-mixing. Convergence rates and the asymptotic distribution of the series estimator are derived when both the cross section sample size and the length of the time series are large and of comparable sizes. Just as for pooled estimation in linear dynamic panels, an asymptotic bias is present, which reduces the mean square convergence rate compared with the cross section case. To tackle this problem, bias correction is developed using a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) type estimator. Some extensions of this framework are also considered under exogenous variables and partial linear models. The limit theory and bias correction formulae follow by extending the main results. Finally, an empirical study on nonlinearities in cross-country growth regressions is presented to illustrate the use of the nonparametric dynamic panel models with fixed effects. After bias correction, the convergence hypothesis is true only for countries in the upper income range and for OECD countries.

Kyoo il Kim - Job Candidate

Kyoo il Kim is a job candidate for our open position as a micro-econometrician.He is from University of California, Los Angeles, and will be here Friday 27 January. His job talk will take place in Savery 302 at 2.00 PM. Title and abstract are below:

Semiparametric Estimation of Signaling Games

ABSTRACT: This paper studies an econometric modeling of a signaling game with two players where one player has two types. In particular, we develop an estimation strategy that identifies the payoffs structure and the distribution of types from data of observed actions. We can achieve uniqueness of equilibrium using a refinement, which enables us to identify the parameters of interest. In the game, we consider non-strategic public signals about the types. Since the mixing distribution of these signals are nonparametrically specified, we estimate the model using a sieve conditional MLE or a sieve minimum distance estimation. In both methods, we achieve the consistency and the root n-asymptotic normality of the structural parameter estimates. As an alternative, we allow for the possibility of multiple equilibria, without using an equilibrium selection rule. As a consequence, we adopt a set inference allowing for multiplicity of equilibria. Then, we illustrate an empirical example of a signaling game between publicly traded firms and investors where firms have one of two types: market leader or follower. In this game, firms signal their types through strategic emphasis on R&D or market spending. The estimation result suggests that defining a leader firm in terms of R&D spending without consideration of strategic behaviors can be misleading.

Sung Jae Jun - Job Candidate

Sung Jae Jun, Brown University, will be at the department on Friday 20 January. He is a job candidate for the position as micro-econometrician. His job talk takes place at 2:00pm in Savery 302. Title and abstract below. Weak Identification Robust Tests in an Instrumental Quantile Model

ABSTRACT: We consider the linear instrumental quantile model proposed by Chernozhukov and Hansen (2001, 2005a, 2005b). Since it is never clear for what quantile effects the given instruments are most informative, we develop a testing procedure that is robust to identification quality in the GMM framework. In order to reduce the computational burden, a multi-step approach is taken, and a two-step Anderson-Rubin (AR) statistic is considered. We then propose a three-step orthogonal decomposition of the AR statistic, where the null distribution of each component does not depend on the assumption of a full rank of the Jacobian. Power experiments are conducted, and inferences on returns to schooling using the Angrist and Krueger data are considered as an empirical example. Although returns to schooling for the upper quantiles seem to be quite consistent, the robust confidence sets for the lower quantiles are so wide that they still remain imprecise, which differs from the results in Lee (2004) and Chernozhukov and Hansen (2005b).

2006 Pacific Conference for Development Economics

I just wanted to make sure that everybody interested have heard about the 2006 Pacific Conference for Development Economics. It is a relatively new initiative (first conference was last year) and it is great venue for especially PhD students to present their work. The poster for the conference can be found here. Please contact either me or Michael Kevane (mkevane at scu.edu) for more information.

Back in Seattle

I am back! I arrived in Seattle yesterday and will be updating my blog a little more regularly now. The main thing happening right now is that we are looking to hire a junior micro-econometrician. We interviewed a number of good candidates at the ASSA meetings in Boston and we will be deciding on fly-outs soon. I will provide an update when more information is available.

I will also be teaching a course in the microeconomics of development. More on that later.